WASHINGTON – U.S. President Barack Obama will release Monday what the White House is billing as a pivotal climate change plan that will lead to massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel power plants.
The plan will target the nation’s 1,600 fossil fuel plants, which together produce about 41 per cent of the nation’s carbon dioxide emissions. The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) predicted the regulations could lead to a 35 per cent reduction in GHG emissions below 2005 levels by 2020.
According to the plan, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will dictate the amount of emissions each state must cut by 2020 and onward, and then leave it to those states to implement the reductions.
Obama said this week he hopes a stronger domestic climate change strategy will convince world leaders next year to sign onto a global plan.
“We see this as the Super Bowl over climate politics right now,” said Peter Altman, director of climate and clean air at the NRDC.
David Goldston, NRDC director of government affairs, predicted the new regulations will “fundamentally change the political dynamic.”
Expect an enormous fight over the regulations in Congress and the courts from power companies, the coal industry, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the states, he said.
“This will be the pivotal battle for climate change in the U.S.,” he added.
Both Obama’s new plan and the ensuing battle likely will have repercussions in Canada where Prime Minister Stephen Harper has linked the country’s climate strategy directly with that of the U.S.
Now that Obama is taking a much harder line on emissions, the pressure will be on Canada to respond in kind, particularly since the Keystone XL pipeline and the high emissions from the oilsands have become global symbols of climate change.
Pushback has already come from both Congress and industry.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell this week tried but failed to get Congress to block the EPA’s new emission standards even before their announcement.
“Sen. McConnell should abandon these political antics and let the EPA do its job to protect our children and communities from dangerous climate change,” said Franz Matzner of the NRDC.
The American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity published figures this month warning that the EPA regulations will cost about three million jobs.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce this week issued a 71-page report claiming the EPA regulations could cause an annual drop in economic output of $51 billion US and lead to an average 224,000 fewer jobs every year until 2030.
Even if this were true, it would be a drop in the bucket for a $15-trillion economy that is capable of producing that many jobs in a month, economists have pointed out.
The chamber has a reputation for climate change denial. But despite its often-disputed warnings, they quickly become the talking points for Republicans.
The chamber’s predictions are based on modelling by the energy information company HIS, whose clients are primarily utility and fossil fuel companies. The study assumes a 42 per cent reduction goal. But the model does not take into consideration the economic gains from plant refurbishment, replacement and renewable energy.
Two independent polls indicate the public is not on industry’s side. Both show that Americans support strong measures to reduce GHGs from coal-fired power plants by a two to one basis.
A poll by the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University found that 64 per cent of Americans strongly or somewhat support strict GHG limits even if they mean higher electricity rates.
A Harstad Strategic Research poll commissioned by the NRDC shows that support for strong regulations is 67 per cent and crosses party lines.
Younger voters, women and minorities including Latinos and African Americans show solid support, while most of the opposition comes from aging white men, who represent the Republican base.
“When it comes to climate change, good policy is good politics,” said the NRDC’s Heather Taylor-Miesle.
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By the numbers:
Number of fossil fuel power plants in the U.S.: 1,600
Total annual carbon dioxide emissions of these plants: about 2.5 billion tonnes
Percentage of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions: 41
Percentage of power plant emissions from coal: more than 78
Percentage of power generated from coal: 48.6 per cent
Percentage of coal-fired plants to be retired: 18
Percentage increase in power plant GHG emissions from 1990 to 2008: 13
Percentage decrease since 2008 (Great Recession): 13
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